ABIO10 PGTW 200230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/200230Z-201800ZOCT2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200151ZOCT2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.1N 61.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 61.8E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 192155Z 
NOAA20 183GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION CENTERED OVER A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH ELONGATED 
CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 91A IS IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO 
WARM (30-31C) SST, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 91A WILL CONTINUE 
ALONG A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 200200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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