ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZOCT2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.6N 65.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 61.9E, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED MET9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICTS 
FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). A 191432Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE 
BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN 
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 91A IS 
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO WARM (29-30C) 
SST, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD 
AND DEEPEN, POSSIBLY REACHING WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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