ABIO10 PGTW 191430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/191430Z-191800ZOCT2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.6N 65.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 62.1E, APPROXIMATELY 522 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
190559Z ASCAT METOP-C PASS DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A 20 KT AREA OF WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH PERSISTENT 
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHER PERIPHERY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 91A IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SST, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE 
WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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