ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZOCT2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.6N 
65.9E, APPROXIMATELY 704 NM EAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 181330Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH, WRAPPING INTO A GRADUALLY 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 181714Z METOP-B 
ASCAP PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY OVAL CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH SPARSE AREAS 
OF 15-20KT WINDS IN THE NORTH AND SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 91A IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION 
DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SST, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD WHILE 
INTENSIFYING OVER THE SOMALI CURRENT.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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