ABPW10 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/162100Z-170600ZOCT2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/162021ZOCT2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.6N 110.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 110.9E, APPROXIMATELY 161 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 161746Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION 
IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE 
LLCC FROM THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 99W IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
99W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 
KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 162030) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH//
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