ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZOCT2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.5N 112.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 110.9E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING SOUTH OF HAINAN, PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY 
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A 160245Z METOP-
B ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SURROUNDED BY 10-
15 KNOT WINDS WITH AN UNASSOCIATED SWATH OF STRONGER 20-25 KNOT WINDS 
OFFSET TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF 99W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATE 
THAT 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 99W WILL 
GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS IT REMAINS MOSTLY QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 
24-36 HOURS BEFORE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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