WTPN21 PHNC 160330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 99.3W TO 12.7N 106.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 160000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 99.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 99.9W,  
APPROXIMATELY 349NM SSE OF ZIHUATENAJO, MEXICO. ENHANCED INFRARED 
IMAGERY AND A 160021Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT AN AREA OF 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION CENTERED AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A FULLY 
OBSCURED AND SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 90E IS DEVELOPING UNDER FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO LOW (05-10KTS) VWS, WARM (31C) 
SSTS, AND FAIR POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS 
VARY SLIGHTLY IN THE TRACK SPEED BUT ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A 
WESTWARD TRACK AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
170330Z.
//
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