ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZOCT2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.5N 
112.4E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF A CONVERGING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF HAINAN. A 
150218Z METOP-C ASCAT PARTIAL-PASS SHOWS STRONGER UNASSOCIATED WINDS 
(25-30 KTS) ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF 99W, WITH THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION SURROUNDED BY 10-15 KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATE THAT 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS AND THE GFS 
DETERMINISTIC MODEL HAVE 99W SLOWLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS 
IT NEARS THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN