WTPN21 PHNC 062000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 95.9W TO 14.0N 101.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 062000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 96.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 
96.0W, APPROXIMATELY 1650 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061716Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. STRONG FLOW 
THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP IS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE 
NORTHERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 99E IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SST. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 99E WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND 
GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
072000Z.//
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