ABPW10 PGTW 061130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/061130Z-070600ZOCT2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060151ZOCT2023//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061051ZOCT2023//
NAAR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 05OCT23 1800Z, TYPHOON 14W (KOINU) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
21.9N 118.4E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD TRACKED 
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF 
A (WTPN31 PGTW 052100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6N 
140.5E, APPROXIMATELY 246 NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 060020Z ASCAT METOP-C IMAGE DEPICTS A 
BROAD PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH BUILDING 
CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND TO THE SOUTHEAST, ALSO SHOWN IN A 060151Z GMI 
89GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 
97W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH CONVERGENCE IN 
THE LOWER LEVELS TO THE WEST, DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW 
COUPLED WITH WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VWS (5-10KTS) AND WARM (29-30C) 
SST. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 97W WILL TRACK WESTWARD, AND CONTINUE TO 
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.0N 156.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 155.9E, APPROXIMATELY 715 NM 
EAST- SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 
060739Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION 
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). FORMATIVE SPIRAL BANDS OF DEP CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED 
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO WARM (30C) SST, GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND 
LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORTEX WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 
12-24 HOURS WHILE IT TRACKS GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 061100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2) TO 
HIGH.//
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