ABPW10 PGTW 060130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/060130Z-060600ZOCT2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951ZOCT2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 05OCT23 1800Z, TYPHOON 14W (KOINU) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
21.9N 118.4E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD TRACKED 
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF 
A (WTPN31 PGTW 052100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.1N 157.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 156.0E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI, MICRONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
IMAGERY AND A 052013Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT AN AREA OF 
DEEP CYCLONIC CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED, AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). A 052230Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. WINDS CLOSE IN TO THE 
LLCC ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS, BUT STRONG WESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW 
IS EVIDENT TO THE SOUTH, WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO WARM (30C) SST, GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, 
AND LOW (05-10KT) DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE 
LATEST UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM POHNPEI SHOWS A WEDGE OF ELEVATED 
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 400-600MB LEVELS WHICH IS IMPARTING A FAIR 
AMOUNT OF TILT ON THE VORTEX, WHICH WILL SERVE TO SLOW THE PACE OF 
CONSOLIDATION. EVEN IN THE FACE OF THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY MID-LEVEL 
SHEAR, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT VORTEX WILL CONTINUE 
TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT TRACKS GENERALLY 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6N 
140.5E, APPROXIMATELY 246 NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 052031Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT 
AN AREA OF DEEP, SYMMETRICAL CONVECTION WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR THE 
PAST SEVERAL HOURS, DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF A PARTIALLY OBSCURED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WHILE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO 
FLARE, IT REMAINS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS THAT 97W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT AS DEPICTED BY WARM (30C) SST, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) 
VWS, OFFSET BY POOR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A 
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK, WHILE DISAGREEING ON THE AREA IN WHICH THE 
SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY FORM. EUROPEAN MODELS ANTICIPATE FORMATION IN 
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL DEPICTS FORMATION TO 
THE EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM 
AND 1.B.(2) TO LOW.//
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