WTPN21 PHNC 030100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020051ZOCT23//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 105.7W TO 14.0N 108.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 030030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 105.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.8N 100.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 105.8W, APPROXIMATELY 1431 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 022048Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CONSOLIDATING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING 
OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98E IS 
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW 
(5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31 C) SST. GLOBAL NUMERICAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98E WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE 
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES 
REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 020100).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
040100Z.
//
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