WTPN21 PHNC 020100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7N 99.8W TO 12.2N 106.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8N 100.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) IS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 
100.5W, APPROXIMATELY 540NM SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO, MEXICO. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 012004Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING 
AND FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
DUE TO LOW (10-15KT) VWS, WARM (30-31C) VWS, AND DECENT DUAL-CHANNEL 
OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INVEST 98E WILL SLOWLY 
DEVELOP WHILE TRACKING IN A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
030100Z.
//
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