ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/291800Z-
301800ZSEP2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.9N 72.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 72.5E, APPROXIMATELY 186 NM SOUTH 
OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS FAIRLY CONDENSED CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 99A IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 
WARM (28-29 C) SST. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT 99A WILL BE 
QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT DEVELOPS OVER THE 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.8N 90.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 20.4E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291223Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH SCATTERED, DISORGANIZED 
CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 
90B IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 C) SST. GLOBAL 
NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT 90B WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD 
TRACK AS IT DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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