ABIO10 PGTW 291300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/291300Z-291800ZSEP2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.9N 
72.5E, APPROXIMATELY 186 NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291046Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICT A MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 99A IS IN 
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO 
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SST. GLOBAL 
NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT 99A WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES 
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.8N 
90.4E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291058Z SSMIS 91 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH 
SCATTERED, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 90B IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND WARM (30 C) SST. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT 90B WILL TRACK 
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AND 
ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2)//
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