ABPW10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/250600Z-260600ZSEP2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240751ZSEP2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.8N 112.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 110.5E, APPROXIMATELY 151 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 242256Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA 
OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH FORMATIVE SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION 
WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 91W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SST. GLOBAL NUMERICAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL TRACK 
SLOWLY WESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 240800) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.1N 147.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 143.3E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 250328Z 88.2 GHZ ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST 
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92W 
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 C) 
SST. GLOBAL NUMERICAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE THAT 92W WILL TRACK 
NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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