ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZSEP2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.0N 159.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 155.5E, APPROXIMATELY 632 NM EAST 
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MSI AND A 202340Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS DEPICT A 
DISORGANIZED, BROAD AND HIGHLY ELONGATED ROTATION WITH MULTIPLE SPINNERS 
AND ASSOCIATED POCKETS OF CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. 
THE SYSTEM LIES WITHIN THE EASTERN REACHES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 96W IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) 
AND THE SUBSTANTIAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) DO NOT SUFFICE TO 
COUNTERACT THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED TO THE 
NORTHWEST, WHICH IS POSITIONED WELL TO ENHANCE OUTFLOW, IS ALSO USHERING 
IN VERY DRY AIR AND WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CIRCULATION, HINDERING THE 
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY, AND 
DO NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. GFS HAS NOTABLY 
WEAKENED THE FORECASTED INTENSIFICATION OF 96W OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL 
RUNS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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