ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZSEP2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.0N 159.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 158.0E, APPROXIMATELY 778 NM EAST 
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200456Z 89 GHZ 
GMI MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION WITH 
FORMATIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 96W IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LOW TO THE NORTH, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND WARM (30 C) SST. CONVERSELY, GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. GFS HAS NOTABLY WEAKENED THE 
FORECASTED INTENSIFICATION OF 96W OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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