ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZSEP2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.7N 162.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 159.5E, APPROXIMATELY 873 NM EAST 
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190311Z 89 GHZ 
AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT BROAD AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE 
REGION WITH NO CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 182335Z 
ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS A TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE, ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL 
REGION OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS, WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE 96W 
DEVELOPING WITH VARYING FORMATION TIME AND INTENSITY. GFS IS THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE, SHOWING DEVELOPMENT AT AROUND TAU 48 WITH CONTINUOUS 
DEEPENING THEREAFTER. OTHER MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT AT AROUND TAU 72-96 
WITH WEAKER INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 96W WILL TRACK IN 
A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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