ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZSEP2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.7N 
162.2E, APPROXIMATELY 286 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 180227Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS 
REVEAL A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED REGION OF CONVECTION WITH NO CLEAR LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 182304Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED A SMALL 
REGION OF 10-15KT SOUTHERLY WINDS WRAPPING UP THE EAST SIDE OF A 
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER, BUT NO WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION AS OF YET. 
AT PRESENT, THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY A WAVE-LIKE FEATURE, OR CUSP VICE 
A CLOSED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 96W IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (30 C) SSTS, LOW (10-
15 KT) VWS, AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT ON THE INVEST, BUT DISAGREE ON THE 
TIMELINE, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST PROACTIVE IN FORMING AROUND 48 HOURS, 
WHILE OTHERS ANTICIPATE FORMATION AROUND 72-96 HOURS OUT AS THE SYSTEM 
TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWEST.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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