WTPN21 PHNC 150730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E) REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140721Z SEP 23//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1N 134.3W TO 15.0N 139.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.2N 134.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.6N 131.5W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 134.6W, APPROXIMATELY 1221 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 150209Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ORIENTED LINEARLY 
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94E IS IN 
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO 
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27-28 C) SST. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94E WILL CONTINUE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO 
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AFTER TAU 24.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 
PHNC 140730).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
160730Z.
//
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