WTPN21 PHNC 140730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E) REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130721ZSEP23//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 131.1W TO 14.0N 135.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.6N 131.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.3N 127.6W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 131.5W, APPROXIMATELY 1471 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 140221Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT AN OBSCURED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BURSTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94E IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM (28-29 C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94E WILL CONTINUE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN PHNC 
130730).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
150730Z.
//
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