WTPN21 PHNC 130730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 126.8W TO 14.1N 132.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 130600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3N 127.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) IS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 
127.6W, APPROXIMATELY 1709NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CLOSELY 
OVERHEAD AND TO THE WEST OF A MOSTLY OBSCURED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 94E IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
DUE TO LOW (05-10KT) VWS, GOOD DUEL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) 
SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94E WILL CONTINUE IN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE  IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
140730Z.
//
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