ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZSEP2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
24.4N 151.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 153.1E, APPROXIMATELY 639 NM EAST 
OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 
BROAD PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE 
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 122355Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALS A HIGHLY 
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH A CONCENTRATED REGION OF 25-35KT WINDS 
BENEATH THE LARGEST AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND 15-20KT WINDS 
WRAPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 93W IS A BORDERLINE TROPICAL-SUBTROPICAL, OR HYBRID 
TYPE SYSTEM, WITH CHARACTERISTICS OF BOTH A SUBTROPICAL LOW AND A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH POSITIVE 
ASPECTS INCLUDING LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) OF SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND 
WARM (28-29 C) SSTS AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE 
BASE OF A 200MB JET STREAK DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THESE 
POSITIVE PARAMETERS ARE OFFSET BY THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR ACROSS 
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, AND THE PRESENCE OF A 500MB LOW 
CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC WHICH IS BRINGING WITH A COLD 
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY ALOFT AND SUBSIDENT MOTION, INHIBITING ORGANIZATION 
AND SUPPRESSING INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE CIRCULATION 
MOVING QUICKLY POLEWARD, RAPIDLY BECOMING MORE SUBTROPICAL, WITH LITTLE 
IN THE WAY OF INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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