ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZSEP2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
23.0N 129.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 128.9E, APPROXIMATELY 286 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THAT 92W IS IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29 C) SST. ADDITIONALLY, A DEEP 
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND 
SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT 92W WILL DRIFT SLOWLY 
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.5N 159.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 151.0E, APPROXIMATELY 558 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
A 120308Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC 
WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 93W IS IN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29 C) 
SST BUT IS OFFSET BY A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE AREA THAT IS 
SUPPRESSING POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE CIRCULATION 
DRIFTING POLEWARD WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN