ABPW10 PGTW 120200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/120200Z-120600ZSEP2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
23.0N 130.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 129.1E, APPROXIMATELY 211 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 92W IS IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OFFSET BY 
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29 C) 
SST. ADDITIONALLY, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM 
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 
THAT 92W WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.5N 
159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 573 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH 
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 112325Z ASCAT 
METOP-B DEPLICTS A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH STRONG WINDS (25-30KTS) TO 
THE SOUTHEAST THAT ARE NOT YET ASSOCIATED WITH INV 93W BUT ARE HELPING 
IT MAINTAIN ITS CYCLONIC MOTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 
93W IS IN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
(10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29 C) SST BUT IS OFFSET BY 
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE AREA THAT IS SUPPRESSING POTENTIAL 
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE CIRCULATION DRIFTING POLEWARD WITH 
LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 14 TO 19 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO LOW 
AND UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO LOW//
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