ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZSEP2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081951ZSEP2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08SEP23 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (YUN-YEUNG) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 84 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, 
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 082100) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.0N 116.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 118.6E, APPROXIMATELY 197NM 
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 090208Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEAL AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION 
ORIENTED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 91W 
IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
OFFSET BY MODERATE (20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL NUMERICAL 
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD 
THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.5N 141.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 140.1E, APPROXIMATELY 282NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 090417Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT BROAD DISORGANIZED CONVECTION 
WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 90W IS IN A MARGINALLY ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
DEFINED BY WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30 C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 
THAT INVEST 90W WILL TRAVEL NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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