ABPW10 PGTW 041500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/041500Z-050600ZSEP2023// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041353ZSEP2023// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041351ZSEP2023// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 04SEP23 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 10W (HAIKUI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 118.5E, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 041500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) AT 04SEP23 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (KIROGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY 193 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN31 PGTW 041500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 129.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 130.3E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, AB. ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH RAIN BANDS AND SOME CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CURVE AROUND THE OBSCURED LLC. THIS IS FURTHER EVIDENCED BY A 041111Z PARTIAL GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN SUBOPTIMAL AS A RESULT OF HIGH VWS (20-30KTS) PRESSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRONG TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF 99W. NONETHELESS, THE WARM SSTS (29-30C) AMPLE OHC, AND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE THE ENERGY TO CONTINUE THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE TUTT WILL WEAKEN AND TRACK NORTHWARD, POSITIONING 99W IN THE EASTERN, DIFFLUENT REGION, WHICH WILL SUPPLY SUFFICIENT OUTFLOW TO COUNTERACT THE EFFECTS OF THE VWS. THERE IS A CONSENSUS ACROSS GLOBAL MODELS THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS INVEST 99W TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, WHILE THE HIGH VWS SUBSIDES, ENABLING STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 173.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 164.4E, APPROXIMATELY 1214 NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A FULLY EXPOSED AND WOBBLY LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LLCC IS NOW MOVING DIRECTLY UNDER A STRONG 500MB LOW CAUSING UNFAVORABLE (40- 50KTS) VWS ACROSS THE LLCC, HINDERING OUTFLOW BUT SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY 25-27C SEA TEMPS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 98W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD, WEAKEN AND GET PICKED UP WITHIN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: TD 11W IN PARA. 1.A.(2) HAS REGENERATED AND IS NOW IN WARNING STATUS.// NNNN