WTPN21 PHNC 040100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N 99.3W TO 12.1N 107.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 032330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N 99.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N
99.7W, APPROXIMATELY 324NM SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED 
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY GOOD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93E WILL
MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
050100Z.//
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