ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZSEP2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030153ZSEP2023//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030152ZSEP2023//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030151ZSEP2023//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 03SEP23 0000Z, TYPHOON 10W (HAIKUI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
22.6N 122.5E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS GUSTING TO 130 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 030300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 03SEP23 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 09W (SAOLA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 21.4N 109.4E, APPROXIMATELY 197 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, AND 
HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 030300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) AT 03SEP23 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (KIROGI) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 141.9E, APPROXIMATELY 659 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF 
SASEBO, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 
25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPN31 PGTW 030300) FOR THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.6N 138.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM 
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH A LARGE BAND OF OVER HEAD CONVECTION DRIVING 
TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE BUILDING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST 
QUADRANT APPEARS TO BE BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATED 96W IS IN A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VWS (20-30KTS), DUAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT 
TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK 
NORTHWARD, WITH NEGLIGIBLE INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 
TO 48 HOURS, AND THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 35.7N 
173.5E, APPROXIMATELY 1650 NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. THE SYSTEM IS 
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED 
AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. MSI DEPICTS 
AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS WIND SPEED IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS ON THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STORM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY 
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THERE IS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF 
LOW JUST TO THE WEST CAUSING INCREASED VWS (25-30KTS) ACROSS THE 
CENTER, HINDERING OUTFLOW BUT SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY 25-27 C SEA TEMPS. 
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 98W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD, 
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, 
REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS 
PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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