WTPN21 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9N 155.4E TO 15.1N 151.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.1N 154.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.1N 154.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 153.6E, APPROXIMATELY 
541 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED PROXYVIS SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A MOSTLY OBSCURED LLCC ENVELOPED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION, WHICH 
IS FURTHER EVIDENT IN A 291508Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION 
DUE TO LOW (10-15KT) VWS, WARM (30C) SSTS, AND GOOD POLEWARD AND 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 94W WILL INTENSIFY AS IT 
FOLLOWS A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
301800Z.
//
NNNN