WTPN21 PHNC 262000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E) REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251951ZAUG23//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1N 117.7W TO 18.1N 124.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.2N 117.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.0N 116.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.8W, APPROXIMATELY 1050 NM 
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
261405Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OCCURRING OVER THE 
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92E IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SST, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92E WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AND CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES 
REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 252000).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
272000Z.//
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