WTPN21 PHNC 252000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951ZAUG2023//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 115.6W TO 15.6N 121.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 251800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 116.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.6N 110.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 116.0W, APPROXIMATELY 1245 NM 
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92E IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (30-31 C) SST, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92E WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AND CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES 
REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 242000).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
262000Z.//
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