WTPN21 PHNC 242000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6N 109.7W TO 14.8N 118.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 241800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.6N 110.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA ON CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 
110.9W, APPROXIMATELY 566NM SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATENEJO, MEXICO. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241740Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, AND 
SMALLER REGIONS OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92E IS IN A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE 15-20KT VWS, OFFSET BY WARM 
(30-31C) SST, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 
92E WILL DEVELOP WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE DEEPENING. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
252000Z.
//
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