ABPW10 PGTW 222000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/222000Z-230600ZAUG2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.4N 153.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 151.5E, APPROXIMATELY 482 NM 
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
220730Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK, FULLY EXPOSED, AND 
RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS 
OFFSET EASTWARD. FORMATIVE, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, BANDING IS ALSO FLARING 
TO THE SOUTH. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM A 220830Z PASS SHOWS 20-KNOT 
WIND BARBS 40-NM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLC. ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 
INVEST 90W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY 
MODERATE TO STRONG (15-20 KNOT) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY CAUSED BY A MID-LATITUDE 
TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 90W WILL DRIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THEN TURN MORE 
NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTPN21 PGTW 221400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.2N 128.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 126.9E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM 
SOUTH OF KADENA AB OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH STRONG MID-
LEVEL TURNING. A 221727Z ATMS 88.2GHZ PASS INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A WEAK 
CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION 
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SST 
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT 
AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A STEADY NORTHWARD 
TRACK WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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