ABPW10 PGTW 221430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/221430Z-230600ZAUG2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351ZAUG2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.4N 153.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 151.5E, APPROXIMATELY 482 NM 
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
220730Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY EXPOSED, TIGHTLY 
WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OFFSET TO 
THE SOUTH AND EAST THAT IS SLOWLY CREEPING INTO THE CENTER. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM A 220830Z PASS SHOWS A SWATH OF 20 KNOTS OVER 
THE CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT INVEST 90W IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM 
(30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS). 
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 90W WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THEN TURN MORE 
NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTPN21 PGTW 221400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.2N 
128.1E, APPROXIMATELY 431 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB OKINAWA, JAPAN. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 220912Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
IMAGE DEPICT A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT FLARING 
CONVECTION OVER THE SUSPECTED LLCC. ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 91W 
IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY 
LACKLUSTER POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE STRUGGLING TO BECOME A MEANINGFUL SYSTEM. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH 
AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2).//
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