ABPW10 PGTW 220100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/220100Z-220600ZAUG2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.2N 155.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 153.3E, APPROXIMATELY 615 NM 
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
FULLY EXPOSED, TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE EAST. A 212017Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE REVEALS AN EXPOSED, DEFINED LLC WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO 
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SWATH OF 20-
25 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH 
VENTING OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY FUELING THE BURSTS OF DEEP 
CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, ANALYSIS REVEALS WARM (29-30C) SST AND LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 90W WILL 
DRIFT WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH WEAK 
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 05E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
33.0N 170.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 175.1E, APPROXIMATELY 483 NM 
NORTHWEST OF MIDWAY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A 
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH 
TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED 
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A 202236Z ASCAT 
METOP-B DEPICTS THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION WITH 
WARM (26-27C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT OFFSET BY LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR BEING 
ADVECTED INTO THE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 05E WILL TRACK POLEWARD AND EASTWARD WITH A BROAD AND 
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET 
WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL 
WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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