WTPN21 PHNC 150100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.4N 93.7W TO 10.6N 101.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 
TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED 
TO BE 23 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 141800Z INDICATES THAT A 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 94.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING 
WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 
94.5W, APPROXIMATELY 405NM OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 142238Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE 
SATELLITE PASS SHOWS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION TO THE WEST, AND AN ELONGATED 
AREA OF CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST, BOTH SLOWLY WRAPPING INTO A 
FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 90E IS IN A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. BOTH DETERMINISTIC 
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90E WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING 
WHILE TRACKING ALONG A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
160100Z.
//
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