WTPN22 PHNC 131930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121921Z AUG 23//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 142.7W TO 11.0N 135.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 135.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.8N 135.6W, 1662 
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 131522Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) AND CURVED BANDING, WITH A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING IN 
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY GOOD OUTFLOW, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 
KTS), AND WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 99E WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 
PHNC 121930).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
141930Z.
//
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