WTPN22 PHNC 121930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N 140.7W TO 9.3N 133.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 121200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3N 133.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.6N 133.3W, 1629 
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 121536Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED SCATTERED CONVECTION. ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM (28C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99E 
WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
131930Z.
//
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