WTPN21 PHNC 120730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 109.8W TO 16.7N 114.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 120000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 110.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.7N 110.0W 
APPROXIMATELY 1203 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120117Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL 
FLARING CONVECTION WITH SHALLOW RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 98E IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY DECENT UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, FAVORABLE (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98E WILL 
TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
130730Z.
//
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