WTPN21 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 155 NM RADIUS OF 24.7N 148.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 148.6E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
24.8N 145.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 148.6E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM 
EAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
AND A 062011Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS REVEAL DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDS ORGANIZING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF A QUICKLY 
CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). A 070113Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEAL AN ELONGATED 20-
25 KTS WIND FIELD EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
95W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO WARM 
(30-31C) SST, LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 95W QUICKLY INTENSIFY OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHILE TURNING BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
080300Z.
//
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