WTPN21 PHNC 050800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040751Z AUG 23//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7N 105.3W TO 21.4N 112.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 34 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.8N 105.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.9N 102.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 
105.4W, APPROXIMATELY 337 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD 
PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING WITH BUILDING 
CONVECTION MOSTLY TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE ZONAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, HIGH 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-35KT), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97E WILL MOVE 
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UP THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 34 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 040800).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
060800Z.
//
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