WTPN21 PHNC 040800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.7N 102.7W TO 17.8N 109.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 102.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 
102.9W, APPROXIMATELY 378NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD 
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25KT), AND 
VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97E WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UP THE 
COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
050800Z.//
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