ABIO10 PGTW 311800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/311800ZJUL2023-011800ZAUG2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.0N 91.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 282 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A 311232Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC FROM 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 1528Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A CIRCULATION WITH A 
CONSOLIDATION OF 25-35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
CURRENTLY 95B IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 
STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE TO HIGH (15-20KT) VWS. THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WITH LOW (10-15KT) VWS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 
28-29C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT INVEST 95B WILL HAVE A LIMITED WINDOW 
TO CONSOLIDATE FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL 
AROUND TAU 24-36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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