ABIO10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/310600Z-311800ZJUL2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.0N 90.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 91.0E, APPROXIMATELY 256 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. A 302328Z SSMIS 
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE 
LLC FROM THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY 
DATA REVEALS A CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 25-35 KNOT WINDS ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. CURRENTLY 95B IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND HIGH 
(25KT) VWS, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD INTO A 
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VWS. SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 28-29C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 
INVEST 95B WILL HAVE A LIMITED WINDOW TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 36-48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM//
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