ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/301800Z-311800ZJUL2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)  AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.0N 
90.6E, APPROXIMATELY 239 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED  INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301006Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS 
SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
LOW (10-15 KNOT) VWS ABOVE THE LLC, STRONG WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW 
AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE OFFSET BY STRONG (25 
KNOT+) VWS UNDER THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL 
EASTERLY JET (TEJ). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95B WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THOUGH OVERALL 
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, THE LACK OF A DISTINCT CONSOLIDATION AND 
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO HIGH VWS AND THE TEJ, WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL 
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BASED 
ON A 301549Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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