WTPN21 PHNC 301300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4N 96.5W TO 16.4N 106.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5N 96.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.5N 
96.7W, APPROXIMATELY 1558 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED 
PROXYVIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WAVE-LIKE FEATURE WITH 
BROAD DISORGANIZED CONVECTION JUST TO THE WEST AND WEAK BANDING ALONG 
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. WEAK FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY IS FURTHER EVIDENT IN A 300819Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IS FAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD 
AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM 
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT 
THAT 96E WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
311300Z.//
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