ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZJUL2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151ZJUL2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24JUL23 0000Z, TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
15.3N 126.5E, APPROXIMATELY 322 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND 
HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 240300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
4.3N 144.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.9N 143.4E, APPROXIMATELY 381 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF FLARING 
AND CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A BROAD AND SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT 
SCATTEROMETERY REVEALED A BROAD CIRCULATION RELATIVELY WEAK 
CIRCULATION, WITH SOME HIGH WINDS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN FLANK AS PART OF A WESTERLY WIND BURST, BUT OTHERWISE SHOWS 
WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE OTHER QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR 
INTENSIFICATION WITH WARM (30C) SSTS, AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW COMING FROM 
THE OUTFLOW OF TY 05W TO THE NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE PICKING UP SPEED TOWARDS THE 
NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 48, WHILE ENSEMBLES ARE PREDICTING A 
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG A SIMILAR 
TIMELINE. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE 
THROUGH TAU 48, BEFORE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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