ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZJUL2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/202051ZJUL2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.1N 130.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 133.0E, APPROXIMATELY 543 NM EAST 
OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
A BROAD ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY 
FLARING CONVECTION. A 210104Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A SWATH OF 25 KNOT 
WINDS TO THE NORTH OF AN ELONGATED EAST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED CONVERGENCE 
ZONE. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) EXCEEDS 140 NM BASED ON THE 
SCATTEROMETER DATA, PROVIDING EVIDENCE THAT WITH RESPECT TO THE STRUCTURE 
OF THE WIND FIELD, THE SYSTEM HAS CHARACTERISTICS OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
BEING ENHANCED BY A DEVELOPING OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A STRONG TROPICAL 
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE NORTHEAST, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15KT) 
VWS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS 
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE 
REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 202100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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